Recency bias

 ....nothing is so alien to the human mind as the idea of randomness.  

- John Cohen 

The psychologist Gerd Gigerenzer has a simple heuristic. Never ask the doctor what you should do. Ask him what he would do if he were in your place. You would be surprised at the difference

- Nassim Nicholas Taleb; Anti-Fragile

Acknowledge the complexity of the world and resist the impression that you easily understand it. People are too quick to accept conventional wisdom, because it sounds basically true and it tends to be reinforced by both their peers and opinion leaders, many of whome have never looked at whether the facts support the received wisdom. It's a basic fact of life that many things "everybody knows" turn out to be wrong. 

- Jim Rogers

Being an outsider has great advantages.

November of 1997 was the time to ‘Go West Young Man’ to California. The United States Navy awarded me a final 6 months in Oakland California to complete their own merger of the Military Sealift Command Navy Exchange Program Headquarters. Friends who speak of my bad luck have no idea my gratitude on the path the Gods provieded.

Seeing the world was partially achieved coming back from a tour thru Asia provided constructive experiences doing some actual real business with the Thai, Singaporeans & Japanese. Moving west in my trusted 1987 Toyota 4-Runner with a longboard, skis & essential gear to the Bay Area  was an incredible paid adventure. My good friend C.S. took me as far as Dallas, TX before continuing the journey thru a historic snow storm in Trinidad, Colorado > Road Closed over the Raton Pass into a night at the local Elementary School > No Lodging. Skiing Aspen, Colorado with some high school friends before the final leg confirmed the importance of taking human action to connect with those close in special places whenever possible.

Apophenia, a spontaneous perception of connections and meaningfulness of unrelated phenomena, never appeared a condition in my youth as I was fairly intelligent enough to know my knowledge was limited. Looking back with considerably more scar tissue & near death experiences I wonder if that Land Rover Discovery on Raton Pass with me wasn’t put there by the grace of higher powers to help make it over a pass I was strictly warned by local police authorities.

Primary Goals Since Youth -

1. Someday learn to build & design.

2. Surf.

3. Move West to give it a go…

At 53 in a massive controlled demolition of older ways and embracing new daily activity the review of past moves can be a valuable process to determine where one was smart, foolish or simply lucky.

At 27 years of age my cousin Matthew Leddick assisted me with consultation on the purchase of my first surfboard in Middletown, Rhode Island. Paddling out a few times on the east coast was about the extent of my ocean knowledge. Almost went down on a ship in the Gulf of Maine in 1992 but the emphasis here was learning to ride energy proficiently.

Lesson > Leverage contacts when possible upon entering a new trade or passion.

Moving to a new city can be intimidating. Fortunately, I was able to crash at a friend’s place in Sausalito until finding a room for rent in the city. Initial inspection of parts of San Francisco was much simpler than some complex situations around Jersey City / Bayonne, New Jersey [last location].

Lesson > Finding a Base of Operations to learn terrain is essential.

The introduction to an internet search connection and online advertisement helped me find a room. An interview with two Brown University graduates prior made me feel as though I was a hairy mongrel form of a military baby killer. Luck came thru with a professional piano player who also helped manage the Berkeley Symphony who had an open room for a few months. Kelly Johnson lived in The Fillmore District in a classic flat with my room above Noah Bagels > Rock Star Location @ discounted rent. Fortitude was a given as my crash pad situation was going south…

Lesson > Believe in yourself. Careful of ones words & always remain grateful.

Research wasn’t the same in 1997. Driving out to Ocean Beach for an inaugural paddle into the Pacific pounded home some life long lessons. Literally. My poundings in the waves thru the fresh salt water there were incredible. The massive salt water winter foam makes it akin to paddling thru ‘air’ with the dark gray skies and tree trunks on the beach arriving from Alaskan storms only adding to the intensity.

A couple of days of total failure getting all the way out on a swell led me to a few surf shops to ask I some basic questions. Ironically much information came from the staff at Wise Surboards as well as a small shop in Bolinas most likely now gone. Sizing up people like a cowboy > who seems genuine to help is a process and skill. My gratitude to those who helped me into the ocean are immense.

Lesson > Act Like You Know The Truth [a little bit…]

ARIZONA 1998

Accepted a position @ Honeywell Commercial Aviation Systems/Phoenix, Arizona.

- Goal: Learn Corporate USA INC, Purchasing / Accounting / Engineering.

- More than one Life > Acquisition of a Historic Home in Jerome, AZ > Weekend Renovation.

- Sacrifice the goal of Pure Surfing > Father’s Wisdom - Give it Time > Resume Consistency.

CALIFORNIA 2001

Learning to surf > no reliance on past or recent experiences. Total immersion with a move to Carlsbad, California on the last day of 2000…

The morning of January 1st, 2001 was the start of a new life. Surfing & Financial Markets.

External Market Forces [2001-2002 Tech Wreck & Bear Market] & comments from a new gym friend opened my eyes to the world of natural resources.

NEW PARADIGM 2022

The month of August 2021 commenced a new clarity & sobriety.

Acceptance of the FINRA / SEC decision and their corruption. All could be gifts.

THESIS STATEMENT

Gas Station Gold Guy building capital in what could be the greatest bear market in mining / resource exploration markets in history.

Clarity to see entropy beneath the surface has to do with years of experience & riding a bicycle around while engaging in multiple positions.

When speaking with others about recent events / markets today IT APPEARS mass psychological conditioning is working…

… or there are fewer and fewer ‘doers’ > More Screen watchers.

Looking back since my departure from 01106 a continual change in locations and positions could be seen as a curse or gift.

Said before if someone told me 25 years ago I’d own 3 properties in Uruguay and regularly surf it would be hard to believe.

My other profession may become a secondary market maker in micro capitalization resource equities… this is really a temporary position much like seeing a set of waves hitting a reef before the crowd recognizes the change in conditions.

Today I’ve found the love of my life and the plan to move to entrepreneurialism is set to accelerate.

I find myself embracing healthy pain and continual evaluation of my surroundings. The gift of gratitude and objectivism is incredible.

Stay tuned for Front Runner. The greatest wealth transfer in history may be directly ahead.

- CAS